GBP/USD rallies on Thursday as Greenback gives up ground post-US PPI

• GBP/USD climbed back over 1.3100 after mid-week slump into 1.3000.
• US PPI inflation figures didn’t spark significant moves, but kept Fed rate cut hopes pinned.
• Market’s see an overwhelming likelihood of a quarter-point Fed cut next week.

GBP/USD turned higher on Thursday, rising back above the 1.3100 handle after the Greenback went limp amid a broad-market uptick in risk-on market sentiment. US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data wrapped around median market estimates, failing to deliver a concise picture of US price growth factors, but still kept market expectations of an impending Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut keel-side down.

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Friday will deliver only mid-tier Consumer Inflation Expectations from the UK side, while US markets will be looking out for another print of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September. Markets will be looking for one last improvement in the key consumer outlook survey before heading into next week’s looming Fed rate call.

US PPI rose to 0.2% MoM in August, with core PPI accelerating to 0.3% MoM. Headline PPI was forecast to rise to 0.1% from the previous 0.0%, while core PPI was expected to rise to 0.2% from July’s -0.2% contraction. Despite the near-term upswing, annualized PPI inflation figures were much more attractive to investors, with YoY headline PPI easing to 1.7% from the previous period’s revised 2.1%, and ticking below the expected 1.8%. Core annualized PPI also beat the expected print, holding steady at 2.4% YoY versus the expected 2.5% uptick.

US Initial Jobless Claims also rose slightly higher for the week ended September 6, increasing to the expected 230K from the previous week’s revised 228K. 

With PPI inflation remaining tame and the number of unemployment benefits seekers holding firmly in tepid territory, little lies in the way of a first rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) on September 18. The Fed is broadly expected to deliver a 25 bps cut to kick off 2024’s late-starting rate cut cycle. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing in over 80% odds of the Fed cutting by a quarter point next week, with a slim 20% still leaning into hopes for an initial double-cut for 50 bps. Rate traders also overwhelmingly expect the Fed to deliver four cuts in total, with December’s rate call expected to land between 425 and 450 bps.

GBP/USD price forecast

GBP/USD took advantage of the Greenback’s Thursday weakness, climbing back above the 1.3100 handle after dipping below the key figure earlier this week. Cable staunched the bleed in the mid-week, bounding just north of the 1.3000 round figure.

Price action continues to lean firmly into the bullish side, with bids trading well above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2970. Short pressure has still kept bidding below recent multi-year highs just north of 1.3250, however an extended decline to the 200-day EEMA at 1.2757 is looking increasingly unlikely.

GBP/USD daily chart