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- GBP/USD bounced but remains trapped within near-term congestion
GBP/USD bounced but remains trapped within near-term congestion
- GBP/USD recovered one-quarter of one percent on Wednesday.
- Despite a bullish bounce, Cable remains hampered by familiar levels.
- US jobs data weighs on market sentiment as NFP looms ahead.
GBP/USD caught a bounce on broad-market risk flows pushing down the Greenback, keeping Cable bid on the north side of the 1.3100 handle on Wednesday. Despite a pivot in risk appetite, GBP bidders were unable to push price action into new territory, and the pair remains hobbled within recent levels.
There remains very little to say about the UK’s economic calendar for the remainder of the trading week; UK data releases are strictly low-tier through Friday, leaving Cable traders at the mercy of overall market flows into and out of the US Dollar.
US JOLTS Job Openings in July missed the mark, adding 7.673 million available jobs compared to the forecast 8.1 million, compared to the previous month’s revised 7.91 million. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) broadly expected to begin cutting interest rates on September 18, markets are tilting further into bets of a 50 bps cut to kick off the next rate cutting cycle. Rate markets are still pricing in 100 bps in total cuts by the end of 2024, but there’s still a 57% chance of the Fed’s September rate call being a slimmer 25 bps, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report looms large and represents the last round of key US labor data before the Fed’s first rate trim. Friday's NFP print is widely expected to set the tone for market expectations regarding the depth of a Fed rate cut, with investors fully priced in on the start of a new rate-cutting cycle this month.
GBP/USD price forecast
Despite an intraday recovery on Wednesday, Cable remains down from multi-month highs above 1.3250. The pair is sticking stubbornly to recent highs after vaulting to a peak 29-month bid in August. Price action is still tilted firmly into the bullish side above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2725, while the immediate downside technical target for shorts will be the 50-day EMA just above the 1.2900 handle.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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