Australia's Gross Domestic Product to ease further in the second quarter

• Australian Gross Domestic Product is expected to post a modest 1% yearly advance.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia will monitor GDP figures before the September meeting.
• Australian Dollar likely to extend its decline with the expected tepid figures. 

Australia will release Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures on Wednesday. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is expected to report that the economy grew 0.3% in the second quarter (Q2) of the year and 1% in the twelve months to June. Annual growth in the first quarter printed at 1.1%. Should the expected 1% be confirmed, it will be the lowest pace of growth since the coronavirus-led recession in 2020. 

What to expect from the Q2 GDP report

As previously noted, the Australian economy is expected to have grown by 1% in the year to June. But what does that mean for the Australian Dollar (AUD)?

Despite tepid growth, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is among those that maintain interest rates unchanged at multi-year highs. The Official Cash Rate (OCR) was lifted for the last time in November 2023 and currently stands at 4.35%. Even further, the RBA is nowhere near trimming interest rates as inflationary pressures have remained high. 

And there is a good reason for it. The latest data available shows that consumer prices rose by 3.5% in the year to July, down from the 3.8% pace recorded in the 12 months to June. The RBA’s mandate is to keep annual consumer price inflation between 2% and 3%. 

However, high interest rates usually translate into slower economic progress amid higher financial costs. To stimulate growth, the central bank would need to lower the OCR. The tricky thing is that boosting the economy is not within RBA’s mandate. 

Theoretically, growth-related figures should not affect policymakers’ decisions. Nevertheless, they do. RBA officials will not acknowledge concerns on the matter but rather maintain the focus on inflation.

Meanwhile, underlying inflation in Australia increased throughout the first half of the year, boosting speculation the RBA could hike interest rates. Since the last meeting, inflation has eased modestly, and market players are willing to believe the OCR has peaked. 

How can the GDP report affect the Australian Dollar?

The GDP report will be released on Wednesday at 01:30 GMT, and market participants will likely assess how the outcome could affect the upcoming RBA decision. Faster-than-anticipated growth will have a positive impact on the AUD as it will reflect not only economic progress but also spook fears of higher interest rates. 

On the other hand, softer-than-expected progress could trigger multiple alarms. Not only will it push the AUD lower, but it will also fuel speculation the RBA should speed up the decision to trim interest rates, which will also negatively affect the local currency.

Valeria Bednark, FXStreet Chief Analyst, adds: “The Aussie is under strong selling pressure ahead of the announcement, with AUD/USD trading at around 0.6740. The pair fell amid mounting risk-aversion ahead of the release of United States (US) employment-related figures scheduled throughout the rest of the week. The US Dollar benefits from the dismal mood, which means that AUD/USD could easily pierce the 0.6700 mark with GDP figures below expected. Next support is located at 0.6660, en route to the 0.6630 price zone.”

Bednarik also notes: “Upbeat figures could trigger AUD near-term demand, but if risk aversion persists, gains could be limited. Even further, AUD/USD may resume its decline after the dust settles. The 0.6780 region is the immediate bullish target, followed by the 0.6810 price zone. Sellers may reappear around the latter, should the GDP post a modest beat. Finally, outrageous growth data could push the pair further up, with AUD/USD aiming to test the 0.6840 area.