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- USD/CHF remains firm above 0.8500 after Swiss GDP and CPI inflation data
USD/CHF remains firm above 0.8500 after Swiss GDP and CPI inflation data
- USD/CHF gathers strength near 0.8525 in Tuesday’s early European session.
- The Swiss CPI rose 1.1% YoY in August; the Swiss economy grew 0.7% YoY in Q2.
- Higher US Treasury bond yields underpin the Greenback, but firmer Fed rate cut bets might cap its upside.
The USD/CHF pair extends its upside amid the firmer US Dollar (USD) around 0.8525 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Swiss inflation was softer than expected in August, but the economy grew stronger than estimated. Investors brace for the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data, which is due later on Tuesday.
Data released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office on Tuesday showed that the country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.1% YoY in August, compared to the previous reading of 1.3%. This figure was below the market consensus of 1.2%. On a monthly basis, the CPI inflation remains unchanged in August from a decline of 0.2% in July, softer than the expectation of a 0.1% increase.
Furthermore, Switzerland's economy grew at a faster rate than expected in the second quarter (Q2). The Swiss Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.7% QoQ, compared to 0.5% expansion in the previous reading, stronger than the estimation of 0.5%. However, the upbeat Swiss GDP growth data fails to boost the Swiss Franc (CHF) in an immediate reaction to the mixed readings.
On the USD front, higher US Treasury bond yields provide some support to the Greenback. However, the upside of the pair might be limited as traders expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates in September. The US August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday could offer more cues about the pace and size of the Fed rate cuts. Financial markets have priced in around 69% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed in September, while the odds of a 50 bps reduction are standing at 31%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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