USD/CAD jumps to near 1.3500 despite multiple headwinds

• USD/CAD reclaims 1.3500 as the US Dollar rises sharply.
• A steady rise in the US core PCE inflation forced traders to pare Fed large rate cut bets.
• The Canadian economy expanded at a faster-than-expected pace of 2.1% in the second quarter of this year.

The USD/CAD pair climbs to near the psychological resistance of 1.3500 in Friday’s New York session. The Loonie asset gains as the US Dollar (USD) rises sharply even though the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation (PCE) data came in softer-than-expected but grew steadily.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh weekly high around 101.60. Market sentiment appears to asset-specific as the S&P 500 has opened with strong gains, while risk-perceived currencies have come under pressure.

The core PCE inflation data, a Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, rose steadily by 2.6% but remained lower than estimates of 2.7%. On month-on-month, the underlying inflation grew in line with estimates and the prior release of 0.2%. The inflation data is unlikely to weigh on market expectations that the Fed will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting as policymakers seem to be more concerned about deteriorating labor market strength.

While signs of stickiness in price pressures from the inflation have diminished bets supporting the Fed to start the policy-easing cycle aggressively. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the likelihood of a 50 basis points (bps) interest rate reduction has reduced to 30.5% from 36% recorded a week ago.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) underperforms the US Dollar despite Canada’s Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) surprisingly coming in stronger than expected. The economy rose at a robust pace of 2.1% from the estimates of 1.6% and the former release of 1.8%, upwardly revised from 1.7%. However, market expectations for more interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC) this year remain firm amid easing price pressures.