Crude Oil regains holds above $75 as supply woes persist

• Crude Oil trades broadly stable, back to its opening levels from Monday after a volatile week. 
• The Libyan outage could still cause concerns about supply in the short term. 
• The US Dollar Index trades above 101.00 ahead of July’s PCE inflation release.

Crude Oil prices are afloat around $75.50 on Friday after a sprint higher on Thursday. Markets are dialing in on the Libyan political turmoil, which could result in an unforeseen shortfall of roughly 1 million barrels per day in the near term. Meanwhile, Houthi rebels have released footage of their attack on the Greek vessel, which is still burning in the Red Sea. 

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against a bucket of currencies, is popping back above 101.00. All eyes this Friday are on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index release for July. The core PCE element is the Fed’s favourite gauge to measure how inflation is behaving and could be the catalyst that predicts how big the rate cut in September will be.  

At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $75.42 and Brent Crude at $78.80

Oil news and market movers: Libya back on the table

• Bloomberg reports that the sudden supply disruption from Libya could result in a shortage of 1 million barrels a day, according to consultants Rapidan Energy Group. That would account for roughly 1% of global supply.
• Indonesia’s state-owned Pertamina is trying to buy Russian Oil for November delivery to Cilacap, Balikpapan and Balongan. The total amount would be around 5 million barrels, Reuters reports.
• The Greek-flagged crude Oil tanker Sounion is still burning and might be leaking oil in the Red Sea. Yemen’s Houthi rebels have agreed to allow tugboats and rescue ships to reach the damaged tanker, CNBC reports. 
• Near 17:00 GMT, the weekly Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count will be released. The previous release was a steady 483. 

Oil Technical Analysis: Another vital close this Friday

Crude Oil is set to make a pivotal choice in this Friday’s close. . Its fate seems to be going hand in hand with that of the US Dollar Index, with technical elements that result in either a recovery or more downturn to come. For Crude, the key level to hold is $75.50 in order to still be able to retest upside levels. 

On that upside, the double level at $77.55 aligns with both a descending trendline and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). In case bulls are able to break above it, the 100-day SMA at $78.54 could trigger a rejection.  

On the downside, the low from August 5 at $71.17 emerges as the first support. Under $70.00, the $68.00 big figure is the first level to watch followed by $67.11, which is the lowest point from the triple bottom seen back in June 2023. 

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart