GBP/USD trims losses but ends the week lower

• GBP/USD chalked in a fourth consecutive down week.
• Despite early losses, Cable clawed back some ground late in the week.
• Coming up next week: UK and US CPI inflation updates.

GBP/USD wrapped up a fourth straight week in the red, closing lower around four-tenths of one percent despite a late-week recovery from lows below the 1.2700 handle. A thin showing on the economic calendar from the UK side gave GBP traders a breather after the Bank of England (BoE) sparked a broad-market pummeling of the Pound Sterling. Market flows have since rebalanced, and investors have now pivoted towards next week’s upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation prints due from both sides of the Atlantic.

Forecasting the Coming Week: US CPI and Fed’s easing should rule the sentiment

The focus in the market is on the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Rate markets have fully factored in the beginning of a cycle of rate cuts when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on September 18. However, expectations for an initial double cut of 50 basis points have slightly diminished from nearly 70% earlier this week. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are estimating a 53.5% chance of a 50 bps cut in September, with two additional cuts of 25 basis points each projected for the remainder of 2024.

Next week, investors will receive fresh inflation data to consider, with US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. US Retail Sales and an update from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey Index are also expected later next week. Both core PPI inflation and headline CPI inflation are currently around 3% year over year, and investors will be looking for further easing in headline figures to support the case for rate cuts by the Fed.

UK CPI inflation is expected to tick up to 2.3% YoY in July from the previous 2.0%, while core CPI inflation figures are forecast to tick down to 3.4% from 3.5%. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth numbers from the UK are also expected later next week, and Q2 UK GDP is expected to ease to 0.6% from the previous 0.7%.

GBP/USD price forecast

Cable continues to tease a bearish fall back into the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2649, but bidders have thus far stepped up to keep bids from falling any closer toward the 1.2600 handle. However, bullish momentum has evaporated as GBP/USD remains down over 2% from 12-month peaks just above 1.3000 set in July.

GBP/USD daily chart