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- Australian Dollar extends losses after PBoC’s cut and falling copper prices
Australian Dollar extends losses after PBoC’s cut and falling copper prices
- AUD/USD registered sharp declines on Monday towards 0.6640.
- During the Asian session, the PBOC loan prime rate was cut by 10 basis points.
- Aussie’s stability is supported by the hawkish RBA stance, which remains reluctant to embrace cuts.
In Monday's session, the Australian Dollar (AUD) presented additional losses against the USD, with AUD/USD beginning the new week around 0.6640. This loss is largely attributed to falling Copper prices and the People Bank’s of China rate cut of 10 basis points. Revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q2 figures and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) from the US, along with Judo PMIs from Australia, are anticipated to shape the week's trading direction.
Despite some signs of weakness in the Australian economy, stubbornly high inflation continues to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to delay rate cuts, potentially limiting any further decline in the AUD. The RBA maintains its stance amongst the last central banks within the G10 countries likely to begin rate cuts, a commitment that could extend the AUD's recent gains.
Daily digest market movers: Aussie down as markets await new data to get fresh clues on the RBA’s stance
- The People's Bank of China (PBoC) announced new interest rates. The 5-year interest rate was set at 3.85%, which fell short of the expected 3.95%. Similarly, the 1-year interest rate was adjusted to 3.35%, below the anticipated 3.45%.
- In addition, Copper prices fell by nearly 1% on Monday which weighed on the Australian currency as Australia is a big export.
- The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) confirmed last week strong employment figures but that the Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 4.1%, up from 4.0%.
- The reaction of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to this data will be closely watched, but as for now, the bank isn’t giving signs of easing on its hawkish stance.
- Meanwhile, the market currently predicts a 50% likelihood of the RBA implementing a rate hike either in September or November, reflecting the bank's hawkish stance.
- For the Federal Reserve, the chances of a rate cut in September stand at approximately 90%, near to being priced in.
- However incoming data from both countries will continue shaping those expectations.
AUD/USD Technical analysis: AUD/USD plunges and remains below the 20-day SMA
While the AUD/USD pair has entered a correction period after early July's sharp gains, the main concern lies with the loss of the core support around 0.6000-0.6040. As technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hint at weakening momentum, a deeper downside might be looming unless the pair retains the mentioned range.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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