China’s third plenum in July to give industrial metals a boost – TDS

The rumblings are starting as we look ahead to China’s third plenum set for July. So far, the latest round of stimulus has failed to solidify markets as data from the property market remains weak, while the latest industrial demand data also came in soft overnight, TD Securities commodity strategists note.

All metals are within range of potential CTA selling triggers

"With households already heavily in debt it is entirely likely the latest property market measures have done little to incentivize new debt to be taken on, particularly as housing prices continue their trend lower, challenging the long-held narrative that prices only go up in the long-run. The market is now hoping that China will announce of new domestic based consumption stimulus measures."

"However, despite this festering optimism, industrial metal prices continue to weaken. Our gauge of commodity demand is weakening amid a precarious global macro landscape, and our return decompositions across the complex confirm the demand side is finally starting to weigh heavy on the metals as the early summer euphoria fades."

"Our return decomposition framework is also showing a major drag in Copper from idiosyncratic factors, such as positioning. This suggests that the red metal could still be prone to additional downside in the near-term as bloated positions are cut. Copper has a margin of safety before the next selling trigger; however, aluminum, zinc, lead and nickel are all within range of potential CTA selling triggers."