USD/CHF posts fresh three-month low near 0.8830 after weak US Retail Sales

• USD/CHF refreshes three-month low near 0.8830 as sluggish US Retail Sales growth boosts Fed rate cut hopes.
• Retail Sales, excluding automobiles, contract steadily by 0.1%.
• The Swiss Franc will dance to the tunes of the SNB’s policy outcome.

The USD/CHF pair prints a fresh three-month low near 0.8830 in Tuesday’s American session. The Swiss Franc asset weakens as the US Dollar (USD) falls on the backfoot after the United States (US) Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales returns into positive trajectory in May after contracting 0.2% in April, downwardly revised from a flat performance. However, the pace at which Retail Sales grew was slower at 0.1% than expectations of 0.2%.

The report showed that lower sales at service stations due to fall in gasoline prices and decline in prices of automobiles were responsible for slower growth. Sluggish consumer spendings would dent growth outlook and boosts market speculation for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in the September meeting.

Retail Sales excluding automobiles, a close measure to consumer spending that accounts for two-thirds of the economy, contracts at a steady pace of 0.1%. This would force economists to revise down expectations for Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.

The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability for rate cuts in the September meeting has increased to 67% from 61.5%, recorded on Monday. Traders have priced in two rate cuts this year while Fed policymakers continue to argue in favor of reducing interest rates only once as they want to see inflation declining for months.

On the Swiss Franc front, investors await the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) interest rate decision, which will be announced on Thursday. A close call is expected from the SNB as Swiss exports have become competitive in global markets and imports have become costly due to weak Swiss Franc, which could revamp price pressures again. However, price pressures have remained below the 2% since June 2023 on a year-on-year basis.