Market news
05.06.2024, 07:31

Pound Sterling consolidates as investors await US ISM Services PMI and Employment data

  • The Pound Sterling remains sideways against the US Dollar with eyes on crucial US economic data.
  • Market speculation for the Fed reducing interest rates in September strengthens.
  • The BoE is expected to deliver two rate cuts this year.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades in a tight range above 1.2750 in Wednesday’s London session. The United Kingdom's (UK) economic calendar lacks top-tier events this week. Therefore, potential moves in the GBP/USD pair will be guided by the US Dollar (USD), which is expected to remain active due to a data-packed week in the United States (US).

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, manages to hold above the crucial support of 104.00. However, the near-term outlook of the US Dollar remains uncertain amid growing speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates in the September meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Fed Funds futures pricing data suggests a 65% chance of interest rates declining from their current levels in September. The probability has risen significantly from 47% recorded a week ago. Weak US ISM Manufacturing PMI report for May and downwardly revised Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data have prompted Fed rate-cut bets for September.

Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling remains sideways while US Dollar stabilizes above 104.00

  • The Pound Sterling consolidates in a tight range near 1.2770 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair struggles for a direction as investors shift focus to the US ADP Employment Change and the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for May, which will be published at 12:15 and 14:00 GMT, respectively.
  • The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) agency is expected to show that fresh private payrolls increased by 173K, lower than 192K in April. The ISM Services PMI, which gauges the service sector activity that accounts for two-thirds of the economy, is estimated to have returned to expansion, seen at 50.5, higher than the former release of 49.4. 
  • Apart from Services PMI figures, investors will also focus on other subcomponents, such as New Orders and Prices Paid Indexes, which will reflect the demand outlook and change in input prices. In the service sector, the major expenditure allocation goes into wages paid to workers, which has remained a key driver of persistent price pressures.
  • This week, the major event will be the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May, which will be published on Friday. The labor market data will provide fresh cues about the interest rate outlook. It is justified to say that the US labor market is normalizing. The US JOLTS Job Opening data for April showed that job postings were lower at 8.06 million from the expectations of 8.34 million and the former release of 8.35 million.
  • In the United Kingdom, investors look for fresh cues about when the Bank of England (BoE) will start reducing interest rates. Currently, financial markets expect that the BoE will deliver two rate cuts this year and will choose the August meeting as the earliest point to start the policy normalization process.

Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling holds 20-DEMA

The Pound Sterling trades inside Tuesday’s trading range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants. The GBP/USD pair struggles to sustain above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement support (plotted from the March 8 high of 1.2900 to the April 22 low at 1.2300) at 1.2770.

The Cable is expected to remain bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2700 is sloping higher, indicating a strong uptrend.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shifted into the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting that the momentum has leaned toward the upside.

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

 

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