NZD/USD rises toward 0.6200 due to higher Terms of Trade, China Services PMI

• NZD/USD gains ground due to an increase in export volumes and a strong rebound in the Terms of Trade in Q1.
• The New Zealand Dollar received support from China Services PMI, which marked the 17th consecutive month of expansion in services activity.
• Speculation is strengthening that the Fed will begin reducing interest rates starting from the September meeting.

NZD/USD retraces its recent losses, trading around 0.6180 during the early European hours on Wednesday. New Zealand's data for the first quarter showed a significant increase in export volumes and a strong rebound in Terms of Trade, providing support to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). The index, which measures the ratio of export prices to import prices, rose by 5.1%, following a 7.8% decline in the previous quarter and surpassing market forecasts of a 3.1% increase.

Caixin China Services PMI came in at 54.0 in May, surpassing expectations of 52.6 and the previous figure of 52.5. This marked the 17th consecutive month of expansion in services activity, indicating the fastest pace since July 2023. This could have supported the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as any change in the Chinese economy could impact the Kiwi market as both countries are close trade partners.

The appreciation of the NZD/USD pair could be attributed to rising speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting, following a series of weak US economic data.

On Tuesday, the JOLTS US Job Openings declined by 296,000 to 8.059 million in April, down from March's 8.355 million, marking the lowest level since February 2021. This figure also missed the market consensus of 8.340 million.

As per the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut by at least 25 basis points has increased to nearly 64.9%, up from 46.3% a week earlier.