The Pound Sterling (GBP) is stuck in a tight range around 1.2660 against the US Dollar in Tuesday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair trades sideways as investors shift focus to the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, to be published on Wednesday, which will likely provide some clues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) could start reducing interest rates.
The US Dollar juggles in a narrow range as well ahead of the inflation data. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly above 104.00.
Meanwhile, the appeal for the Pound Sterling slightly improves as surveys show that the United Kingdom economy will deliver modest growth this year after falling to a technical recession in the second half of 2023. The latest projections from the UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) showed that the economy is forecast to grow by 0.8% this year. Domestic demand has rebounded while geopolitical tensions remain a major concern, resulting in supply chain disruptions, the OBR report said.
This week, investors will focus on the UK monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the factory data for February, which will be published on Friday. The data will give a snapshot of the state of the economy after the 0.2% GDP expansion registered in January. The breakdown among sectors will also provide data from the country’s manufacturing sector, which is considered a leading indicator for overall demand.
The Pound Sterling demonstrates a sideways performance as investors await the US inflation data for fresh guidance. The GBP/USD trades back and forth around 1.2660, and remains inside Monday’s trading range. The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2570 supports the Pound Sterling bulls.
On the downside, the psychological level of 1.2500 plotted from December 8 low will be a major support for the Cable.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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