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- Mexican Peso weakens against US Dollar on US NFP data
Mexican Peso weakens against US Dollar on US NFP data
- Mexican Peso down 0.35% vs. USD, hit by strong US jobs data and Mexico's investment decline.
- S&P maintains Mexico's BBB rating, focusing on 2024 elections impact.
- US economic vigor from employment, Factory Orders and consumer sentiment adds to MXN pressure.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) depreciates against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday following a jobs report revealed by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). That report signaled the economy in the United States (US) remains solid amid a tight labor market. Besides that, weaker-than-expected data from Mexico sponsored the exotic pair with a leg up ahead of the weekend. The USD/MXN trades at 17.13, 0.35% higher.
According to November’s data revealed by the National Statistics Agency, Mexico witnessed a dip in Gross Fixed Investment. It should be said that S&P maintained Mexico´s sovereign debt rating as BBB ahead of the general elections on June 2, 2024.
Across the borders, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report revealed January’s employment data, which was outstanding, painting an upbeat economic outlook for the US. Further data revealed that Factory Orders rose moderately, while American household sentiment remained positive.
Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso loses ground on strong US jobs report
- Mexico´s Gross Fixed Investment fell -1.3% MoM in November, below October’s 1.7% expansion.
- S&P Global confirmed Mexico´s BBB foreign currency rating and BBB+ local currency long-term debt rating.
- S&P Global affirmed that stable macroeconomic conditions, with a real growth in Gross Domestic Product above 3% in 2023 that is supported by solid domestic demand and moderating inflation, prepare the way for the general elections in June.
- The US Nonfarm Payrolls for January showed the economy created 353K jobs while exceeding forecasts of 180K and upwardly revised figures for December. Average Hourly Earnings in monthly and yearly numbers rose, signaling that workers are asking for better salaries, while the Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 3.7%.
- Factory Orders for newly manufactured goods climbed modestly by 0.2%, aligning with estimates and trailing November’s 2.6% expansion.
- The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index on its final reading for January improved to 79.1 from 78.9. Inflation expectations for one year were 2.9%, down from 3.1%, and for five years they were flat at 2.9%.
Technical Analysis: Mexican Peso weakens further, as USD/MXN buyers target 17.20
The USD/MXN remains trading sideways, but it has pierced above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 17.13, which could pave the way for further gains. If buyers achieve a daily close above that level, they should remain hopeful of challenging the 200-day SMA at 17.32. That level would be followed by the 100-day SMA at 17.38. Once that area is cleared, the exotic pair could extend its gains to 17.50.
Conversely, a bearish resumption could happen if USD/MXN slips below the 50-day SMA, clearing the way toward the January 22 daily low of 17.05. Further downside is expected once the pair breaks below the 17.00 figure.
USD/MXN Price Action – Daily Chart
Mexican Peso FAQs
What key factors drive the Mexican Peso?
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso?
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso?
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso?
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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