The Swedish Krona (SEK) has given back some of the ground it won vs. the Euro (EUR) in the final two months of last year. Economists at Rabobank analyze EUR/SEK outlook.
A cautious outlook on rates from the Riksbank combined with a dash of optimism that the domestic economic outlook should improve later this year suggests scope for the SEK to regain its footing and for EUR/SEK to trend lower towards 11.00 on a 3-to-6-month view.
Despite the SEK’s improved tone late last year, EUR/SEK remains well above its 5-year average. A weak currency will add to inflation risks. However, it can also generate growth through the export channel; signs of this may now be emerging. We would expect EUR/SEK to continue its normalisation this year and move back to 10.80 on a 12-month view.
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