Gold price reverses overnight losses, reduced Fed rate-cut bets might cap gains

• Gold price regains positive traction on Tuesday, though the upside potential seems limited.
• Geopolitical risks and China’s economic woes lend some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD.
• Reduced bets for an early rate cut by the Fed should cap any meaningful appreciating move.

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Tuesday and recovers a major part of the overnight modest losses. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, along with concerns over China's weak economic recovery, lend some support to the safe-haven precious metal. The upside, however, remains capped as investors continue to roll back expectations for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which could undermine the non-yielding yellow metal. Apart from this, the risk-on environment might further contribute to capping any meaningful appreciating move for the bullion ahead of this week's key central bank event risks, especially the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting on Thursday.

Traders this week will also confront the release of global flash PMIs on Wednesday, which will be followed by the Advance US Q4 GDP print and the US Core PCE Price Index on Thursday and Friday, respectively. This, in turn, should provide a fresh directional impetus to the Gold price. In the meantime, a shift in expectations in the wake of the recent hawkish comments by several Fed officials, noting that it was too early to consider interest rate cuts, suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD is to the downside. Hence, any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price attracts some safe-haven flows; hawkish Fed expectations to cap gains

• The risk of a further escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, along with China's economic woes, assists the safe-haven Gold price to regain some positive traction on Tuesday.
• The US launched its seventh round of strikes on a Houthi anti-ship missile as the drone strikes by Iran-backed Houthi rebels on commercial vessels continue in the Red Sea.
• Pakistan and Iran have decided to resolve their issues with diplomacy, while the Israel-Hamas conflict is threatening to erupt into a large-scale war and impact the global economy.
• Investors continue to scale back their expectations for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve in the wake of signs that the economy is still in good shape.
• The current market pricing indicates a 40% chance of a March rate cut, down from as much as 80% a week ago, and five 25 bps rate reductions for 2024 as compared to six two weeks ago.
• The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond holds just below the highest level since December touched last week and acts as a tailwind for the US Dollar, capping the XAU/USD.
• The Bank of Japan, as was widely expected, decided to maintain the status quo and leave its ultra-loose monetary policy settings unchanged at the end of the January meeting this Tuesday.
• Traders now look to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, which, along with the global PMIs, the Advance US Q4 GDP and the US Core PCE Price Index, for a fresh impetus.

Technical Analysis: Gold price might struggle to make it through the $2,040-2,042 pivotal resistance

From a technical perspective, any subsequent move up beyond the $2,030 area is likely to confront stiff resistance near the $2,040-2,042 supply zone. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively could trigger a short-covering rally. The Gold price might then climb to the $2,077 area before aiming to reclaim the $2,100 round-figure mark.

On the flip side, the overnight swing low, around the $2,017-2,016 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $2,000 psychological mark, or over a one-month low touched last week. A sustained break below the latter could make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the $1,988 intermediate support. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently around the $1,972 area and the 200-day SMA, near the $1,964-1,963 zone.