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- US Dollar trims gains following consumer sentiment data, set to close a winning week
US Dollar trims gains following consumer sentiment data, set to close a winning week
- The DXY Index trades just below the 200-day SMA as bulls are struggling to hold their ground.
- Existing Home Sales from December were weak, while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment arrived better than expected.
- Dovish bets on the Fed remain high.
The US Dollar (USD) is seen neutral by the end of the week and currently tallies a 0.90% weekly gain. Strong University of Michigan (UoM) data is keeping the USD afloat, but steady dovish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) limit the upward potential.
The US economy appears overheated, tempering the market's dovish expectations, although the chances of interest rate cuts in March and May lingers at around 50%. Thus, the US dollar remains in fluctuating currents, affected by both resilient economic performance and dovish bets on the Fed's likely moves.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar stands neutral as markets asses UoM and Housing data
- The Michigan Consumer Expectations for January reported by the University of Michigan (UoM) came in at 75.9, an increase from the December figure of 67.4.
- The five-year Inflation Expectations saw a slight decrease of 2.8% compared to the previous month's 2.9%.
- Similarly, the UoM’s Inflation Expectations for January were down to 2.9% from the previous 3.1%.
- The Current Conditions for January increased to 83.3 compared to December's 73.3.
- December’s Existing Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) turned out lower than expected at 3.78M against the anticipated 3.82M.
- The yields for US bonds are still advancing with the 2-year yield at 4.41%, the 5-year yield at 4.09%, and the 10-year yield at 4.17%. All three are at their highest level since mid-December.
- As per the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of cuts for March and May eased, but they remain high at 55% and 45%, respectively.
Technical Analysis: DXY Index bulls shows resilience, must recover the 200-day average
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) showcases an upward slope, residing well within positive territory, which generally denotes bullish strength. This is concurrent with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which, propelled by the rising green bars, indicates strong buying momentum. However, those indicators are starting to flatten as the index tallied a five-day winning streak.
Reflecting upon the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), the index holds a position above the 20-day average, denoting an undercurrent of bullish dominance in the immediate short term. However, if the bulls fail to regain the 200-day SMA, more downside may be on the horizon.
Support levels: 103.20, 103.00, 102.80.
Resistance levels 103.40 (200-day SMA), 103.60, 103.80.
US Dollar FAQs
What is the US Dollar?
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar?
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar?
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar?
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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