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- USD/INR recovery loses steam, focus on US data, Das’s speech in Davos
USD/INR recovery loses steam, focus on US data, Das’s speech in Davos
- Indian Rupee trades on a positive note as the US Dollar recovery stalls on Thursday.
- RBI’s Das said inflation is moderating, approaching the central bank's 4% target while growth prospects remain robust.
- Investors will monitor the US data and Das’s speech at the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos.
Indian Rupee (INR) recovers some lost ground on Thursday. The INR fell on Wednesday, driven by equities outflows and the stronger US dollar (USD). That being said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to a one-month high as investors pare bets on aggressive rate cuts following the upbeat US Retail Sales report.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das spoke at the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland. RBI governor Das said inflation in India is moderating and steadily approaching the central bank's 4% target while growth prospects remain robust. He added that core inflation has started steadily coming down, giving confidence that monetary policy is working. The central bank remains fully committed to bringing inflation down to the target of 4%.
Later on Thursday, the US Housing Starts, Building Permits, weekly Initial Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be released. Furthermore, the RBI’s Das will discuss insights on key challenges and opportunities and his perspective on monetary policy at the WEF.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee maintains its strength in the face of geopolitical tensions
- Fitch Ratings affirmed India’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘BBB-’ with a stable outlook.
- India’s economy is expected to grow at 7.3% in FY2024, according to the first advance estimate by the National Statistical Office (NSO).
- RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said India presents a picture of growth and stability amid a challenging global macroeconomic environment.
- RBI’s Das further stated that the Indian economy should record a growth rate of 7% in the next fiscal year, and inflation is likely to ease further.
- US Retail sales rose 0.6% MoM in December from a 0.3% gain in November, beating the estimation of 0.4%, according to the Commerce Department's Census Bureau.
- Retail Sales Control Group grew 0.8% MoM in December from the previous reading of 0.5%, above the market consensus.
- Investors have priced in a 57% odds for a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut in March, down from 70% at the beginning of the week, according to the CME Fedwatch tool.
- The Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said any rate cuts this year should be done "methodically and carefully.”
Technical Analysis: Indian Rupee clings to the 82.80–83.40 range
Indian Rupee trades strongly on the day. The USD/INR pair has traded within the multi-month trading band between 82.80 and 83.40. The outlook for USD/INR shifts towards bullish sentiment as the pair bounces back above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) returns above the 50.0 midpoint, suggesting that the buyers could retain control in the near term.
The upper boundary of the trading range at 83.40 acts as an immediate resistance level for USD/INR. Further north, the additional upside filter to watch is a 2023 high of 83.47, en route to the 84.00 psychological round mark. On the other hand, the first support level will emerge at the 83.00 figure. A breach of this mentioned level will see a drop to 82.80 (the lower limit of the trading range, a low of September 12), followed by 82.60 (low of August 11).
US Dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.11% | -0.08% | -0.10% | -0.24% | -0.05% | -0.23% | -0.03% | |
| EUR | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.01% | -0.13% | 0.06% | -0.12% | 0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.09% | -0.02% | -0.01% | -0.14% | 0.05% | -0.14% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.01% | -0.13% | 0.04% | -0.12% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.23% | 0.12% | 0.14% | 0.13% | 0.18% | 0.01% | 0.21% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | -0.05% | -0.05% | -0.06% | -0.20% | -0.18% | 0.02% | |
| NZD | 0.24% | 0.12% | 0.14% | 0.13% | 0.00% | 0.16% | 0.20% | |
| CHF | 0.03% | -0.08% | -0.06% | -0.07% | -0.21% | -0.03% | -0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Indian Rupee FAQs
What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee?
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee?
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee?
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee?
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
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