Gold price stages a modest recovery from one-month low, bearish potential seems intact

• Gold price attracts buyers on Thursday and snaps a two-day losing streak from over a one-month low.
• A generally softer risk tone offers support to the safe-haven metal amid subdued USD price action.
• Diminishing odds for a March Fed rate cut to act as a tailwind for the buck and cap any further gains.

Gold price (XAU/USD) ticks higher during the Asian session on Thursday and for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak to over a one-month low touched the previous day. The US Dollar (USD) pulls back from its highest level since December 13 amid some profit-taking and benefits the commodity. Meanwhile, an escalation of military action in the Middle East and concerns about sustained economic weakness in China – the world's second-largest economy – continue to weigh on investors' sentiment. This is seen as another factor lending some support to the safe-haven precious metal.

That said, any meaningful recovery for the Gold price still seems elusive in the wake of reduced bets for an imminent shift in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy stance. In fact, market participants further scaled back their expectations for an interest rate cut in March following the release of upbeat US Retail Sales figures on Wednesday, which pointed to a resilient US economy. This, in turn, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and favours the USD bulls. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the XAU/USD has formed a near-term bottom.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price draws support from softer risk tone, lacks follow-through

• A modest US Dollar downtick, along with geopolitical tensions and China's economic woes, assists the Gold price in attracting some buyers in the vicinity of the $2,000 psychological mark on Thursday.
• Yemen-based Houthi rebels claimed their second attack this week on a US-operated vessel in the Red Sea and have threatened to expand attacks in response to the American and British strikes.
• China’s economy grew at an annual rate of 5.2% in the final quarter of 2023, more than the official 5% target, though investors remain concerned amid mounting deflationary risks and tepid demand.
• Data released on Wednesday showed that the headline US Retail Sales increased more than anticipated, by 0.6% in December, while core sales – excluding autos – also topped market estimates.
• The data points to still-resilient consumer spending and the underlying strength that the US economy possessed, which could provide the Fed more headroom to keep rates higher for longer.
• Furthermore, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday that the central bank should not rush to cut interest rates until it was clear lower inflation would be sustained.
• The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond holds comfortably above the 4% mark, near its highest level since December 13, and should lend some support to the Greenback.
• Traders now look to Thursday's US economic docket – featuring the release of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and housing market data – for a fresh impetus.

Technical Analysis: Gold price seems vulnerable to slide further, 50-day SMA breakdown in play

From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal support was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction and are still far from being in the oversold territory. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the downside. Hence, any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out quickly near the $2,017-2,018 region (50-day SMA). That said, a sustained strength beyond might prompt some short-covering rally and lift the XAU/USD further towards the $2,042-2,045 horizontal resistance.

On the flip side, bearish traders might now wait for some follow-through selling below the $2,000 psychological mark before placing fresh bets. The Gold price might then accelerate the downfall towards the December monthly swing low, around the $1,974-1,973 region. The latter near the 100- and 200-day SMAs confluence, around the $1,970-1,964 area, which if broken decisively should pave the way for deeper losses. The XAU/USD might then weaken further towards the $1,955 intermediate support before eventually dropping to the November swing low, around the $1,932-1,931 region.