Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD posts modest gains below the mid-$2050s, focus on US inflation data

• Gold price gains ground near $2,045 despite the recovery of USD.
• US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in better than expected, rising 216K in December vs. 173K prior.
• Traders will closely monitor the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), due on Thursday.

Gold price (XAU/USD) holds positive ground despite the rebound of the US Dollar (USD) during the early Asian session on Monday. The stronger-than-expected US labor data on Friday has boosted Greenback demand. Nonetheless, this week’s inflation data will be very important. At press time, the gold price is trading at $2,045, gaining 0.06% for the day.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the value of the USD against a weighted basket of currencies used by US trade partners, rebounds from its late December low to 102.50, up 0.04% on the day.

The US inflation data for December will be the highlight. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show an increase of 3.2% YoY, while the Core CPI is projected to ease to 3.8% YoY from 4.0% in the previous reading. If the data comes in strong, this could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated gold.

On Friday, US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in better than expected, growing 216K in December versus 173K prior. Elsewhere, the Unemployment Rate was steady at 3.7% in the same period, above the market consensus of 3.8%. The Average Hourly Earnings rose to 4.1% YoY in December from 4.0% in the previous reading. Traders lower their bets on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the Fed funds futures markets have priced in 56% odds of a March rate cut from the Fed.

Looking ahead, the US inflation data, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Thursday. On Friday, the Chinese CPI and the US Producer Price Index for December will be due. Furthermore, many Fed officials are set to speak this week, including Bostic (Monday), Barr (Tuesday), Williams (Wednesday), and Kashkari (Friday).