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- Mexican Peso weakens against the US Dollar ahead of US CPI release
Mexican Peso weakens against the US Dollar ahead of US CPI release
- Mexican Peso slides vs. the US Dollar ahead of a busy week for Mexico and the United States.
- Mexico’s economic docket will feature Industrial Production and the Bank of Mexico's monetary policy decision.
- USD/MXN traders are awaiting the US inflation report alongside the Federal Reserve’s decision.
Mexican Peso (MXN) starts the week with a negative tone and loses traction against the US Dollar (USD) in early morning trading during the North American session. The economic docket during the week across both sides of the borders will feature monetary policy decisions by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday and the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) on Thursday. Both central banks are expected to keep rates unchanged despite uncertainty about the Fed’s tone on their monetary policy statement. The USD/MXN is trading at 17.43, posting gains of 0.60% on the day.
Last week’s economic data from Mexico depicted the disinflation process continuing at a time when some of Banxico’s Governors had opened the door to ease monetary policy. However, they stressed that discussions will begin in the first quarter of 2024. On the US front, a tight labor market led to decreasing expectations for rate cuts by the Fed next year.
Daily digest movers: Mexican Peso trades with losses at the beginning of a busy week
- Mexico’s inflation on the producer and consumer side diverged. However, prices continue to ease, increasing the chances for rate cuts by Banxico, as Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja and Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath have suggested.
- Nevertheless, there is a dissenter as Deputy Governor Irene Espinosa pushed back and said inflationary risks are growing.
- China’s latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report paints a deflationary scenario in the second-largest economy worldwide, spurring flows toward safe-haven currencies.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) is bolstering the USD/MXN pair, with the DXY gaining 0.10%, up at 104.09, underpinned by elevated US Treasury bond yields.
- The US 10-year benchmark note rate is up three basis points at 4.262%.
- US jobs market data was mixed, indicating the labor market is cooling down at a slow pace. Following last week’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report for November, traders slashed the odds for potential rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve for next year.
- Ahead in the week, Mexico’s economic docket will feature Industrial Production for October and Banxico’s monetary policy decision on December 14.
- On the US front, inflation figures on the consumer and producer side will be released ahead of the Federal Reserve’s last decision of the year. After that, the unemployment claims, Industrial Production, and Fed Regional Manufacturing Indices will be released.
Technical analysis: Mexican Peso on the defensive as USD/MXN climbs towards 17.50
The USD/MXN daily chart shows the pair is gathering upward momentum, above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 17.39, which could pave the way for further upside. Nevertheless, buyers must reclaim the 17.50 psychological figure so that the exotic pair can challenge the 18.00 mark. On its way toward the latter, buyers must regain the 200-day SMA at 17.54, followed by the 50-day SMA at 17.67.
Contrarily, if USD/MXN sellers drag prices below the 100-day SMA, they could remain hopeful the pair could slump further. The first support would be the 17.00/05 area, before challenging the current current’s year low of 16.62.
Mexican Peso FAQs
What key factors drive the Mexican Peso?
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso?
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso?
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso?
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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