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- EUR/USD could nudge above 1.09 on disappointing US Retail Sales – SocGen
EUR/USD could nudge above 1.09 on disappointing US Retail Sales – SocGen
Following the US CPI data, EUR/USD powered above 1.08. Economists at Société Générale analyze the pair’s outlook.
Seasonality for the Euro is bullish in December
A return of US 10-year yields to 5% looks implausible in the same way that 10-year Bund yields may not revisit 3% or Gilts to 4.75%.
Momentum and direction may be checked today if US Retail Sales surprise to the upside, but a disappointing outcome could help bonds claw back more ground and nudge EUR/USD above 1.09.
The Fed and other central banks, including the ECB and BoE may conclude nothing has changed after this week and that the ‘higher for longer mantra’ still applies.
Irrespective of Fed and ECB messages next month, seasonality for the Euro is bullish in December.
See – US Retail Sales Preview: Forecasts from seven major banks, retreat in consumption for first time since March
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