The Pound Sterling (GBP) faced a nominal sell-off after refreshing a two-month high as price pressures in the UK economy softened significantly in October. Annual headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew at a slower pace of 4.6%, adding to signs that UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will be able to fulfill his promise of halving inflation by the year-end. Meanwhile, the UK Producer Price Index (PPI) fell, suggesting that goods producers were forced to cut prices at factory gates due to a poor demand outlook.
The GBP/USD pair surrendered nominal gains after a soft inflation report but broader demand is strong due to the improved risk-appetite of the market participants. The appeal for risk-perceived assets increased significantly after easing consumer inflation in the US economy and elevated hopes of no more interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Pound Sterling prints a fresh two-month high near the crucial resistance of 1.2500 on improved market sentiment. The GBP/USD pair rallies after testing the breakout region of the symmetrical triangle formed on a daily time frame. The Cable has climbed above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which indicates that the near-term demand has turned upbeat.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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