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- US Dollar plunges to September lows amid lower-than-expected CPI and dovish bets on the Fed
US Dollar plunges to September lows amid lower-than-expected CPI and dovish bets on the Fed
- The DXY index declined to 104.25, its lowest level since early September.
- The headline and core CPI from October came in lower than expected.
- Investors are expecting rate cuts sooner, betting on no more hikes by the Fed in 2023.
The US Dollar (USD) experienced a substantial downward movement in Tuesday's session, and the DXY index, which measures the value of the US Dollar versus a basket of global currencies, tanked to 104.25 driven by a lower-than-expected CPI and dovish bets on the Fed. Focus now shifts to the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales figures from October on Wednesday.
As the United States economy recently printed lower than expected job creation and inflation figures, markets are taking off the table a rate hike at the next Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting in December. In addition, investors are seeing rate cuts sooner, in May 2024. This has made US Treasury yields decline, thus giving the market a reason to lose interest in the US Dollar.
Daily Digest Market Movers: US Dollar weakens as soft CPI fuels dovish bets on the Fed
- The US Dollar Index dived to 104.25, down more than 1% and standing near lows not seen since September, after the report of lower inflation figures.
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) from October missed the consensus. It came in at 4% YoY vs the expected 4.1% and decelerated from its previous figure of 4.1%.
- The headline figure came in at 3.2%YoY, below the consensus of 3.3% and in relation to its last reading of 3.7%.
- US Treasury yields fell vertically with the 2-year rate declining to 4.86%, while the 5 and 10-year rates declined to 4.45% and 4.46%, respectively..
- According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of a 25-basis-point hike in December are extremely low, below 10%. In addition, markets are now pricing in rate cuts in May 2024.
- On Wednesday, the US will report Retail Sales from October, which are expected to have contracted by 0.3%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) from the same month is expected to decelerate to 1.9% YoY.
Technical Analysis: US Dollar bears gain ground and threaten 100-day SMA
Based on the daily chart, the DXY Index has a bearish bias as indicators are flashing signs of bears seizing control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending below its midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram displays rising red bars.
Despite bears gaining ground and pushing the pair below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) in the short term, the DXY is still above the 100 and 200-day SMAs. This suggests that bulls are in control in the broader context.
Support levels: 104.15 (100-day SMA),103.60 (200-day SMA), 103.30.
Resistance levels: 104.50, 105.00,105.30.
US Dollar FAQs
What is the US Dollar?
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar?
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar?
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar?
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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