Wide yield differentials have driven USD/JPY to revisit its 2022 high near 152. Economists at TD Securities analyze the pair’s outlook.
FX intervention warnings have intensified but may prove too little to mark a turnaround in the JPY.
Without the BoJ exiting NIRP, it's hard to make a bullish case for the JPY given fundamentals. Likely, MoF officials are buying time for the BoJ and may choose to ease off the pressure on USD/JPY through FX interventions as a weak JPY has become a political issue for the government amid rising cost-of-living pressures.
Position for a trading range 145-150 from now until Q1'24.
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