USD/JPY still trades around the 149 level. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the pair’s outlook.
Given Tuesday's exchange rate move (chart below), why is no one really sure if we've seen an intervention? Well, there had been a lot of speculation in the run-up that the MOF might take action on a break of the 150 level in USD/JPY.
Therefore, it stands to reason that quite a few market participants wanted to sell USD/JPY as soon as this event occurred – because then the risk of long USD/JPY positions seemed too high. If many do this at the same time, a market reaction can occur that looks like an intervention.
Source: Bloomberg
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