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- US Dollar clings on to weekly gains as sentiment changes
US Dollar clings on to weekly gains as sentiment changes
- Markets on edge over the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge: PCE.
- In case PCE numbers drop substantially, expect substantial US Dollar weakness to unfold.
- The US Dollar Index clings on to an 11th weekly positive close, though it will be a close call.
The US Dollar (USD) is trying to eke out another weekly gain, though this might be a close call to the final minute. If the US Dollar holds onto gains, this would be the 11th consecutive weekly gain for the US Dollar Index (DXY).
While the US Dollar Index closed each week near the high of that same week, that does not look to be the case for this week. With the United Auto Workers (UAW) union strikes continuing, more independent workers joining the picket lines and a US federal government shutdown expected to start this weekend, things are starting to look grim for the Greenback.
From the economic datafront, some oil to the fire might be added with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge: the Personal Consumption Expenditures indices. Should those components fall further below estimates, markets could pick this up as a sign that the Fed is done hiking. The rate differential then might still support the Greenback, though some repricing would make the US Dollar retreat a few figures against several major currencies in the coming days.
Daily digest: US Dollar to face sell-off when PCE sinks
- Fireworks are expected at 12:30 GMT with the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index in all its forms: The Core MoM is expected to stay steady at 0.2%, while the yearly component drops from 4.2% to 3.9%. Headline PCE on a monthly basis is expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.5%, with energy the main driver here for the uptick. The yearly gauge is expected to head from 3.3% to 3.5%.
- Additionally, traders will see the Personal Income and Spending for the month of August: Income is expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.4% for the month, spending to decline from 0.8% to 0.4%.
- Near 13:45 GMT, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for September comes out, with another decline expected from 48.7 to 47.6.
- Closing off the week will be with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment and the Inflation Expectation. Bear in mind these are final readings, so no real shockers are expected here. Consumer Sentiment is expected stay steady at 67.7, while the inflation expectation is expected to hold at 2.7%.
- Equities are mixed with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index roaring over 3%, while in Japan the Nikkei and the Topix are down for this Friday at their closing bell. The Nikkei is even trading near a one-month low. In Europe a turnaround looks to be in the making with European equities mildly in the green and US equity futures in a similar pattern.
- The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in an 82.7 % chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting in November.
- The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield trades are lower at 4.54%, which is quite a step away from 4.48% earlier this week. Investors are starting to buy bonds in order to safely park funds over the weekend with the government shutdown at hand.
US Dollar Index technical analysis: Off the highs
The US Dollar tries to cling on to gains as this week might be proven pivotal for its winning streak since the summer. The US Dollar Index is set to print its 11th straight weekly gain, though headwinds are building up. With the UAW strike, the US Government shutdown and GDP miss are signs not to be ignored with possibly a firm unwind of the current Dollar bull positions that have been built up.
The US Dollar Index opened around 106.15, though the overheated Relative Strength Index (RSI) starts to ease and is out of the overbought area. Traders that want to hit a new 52-week high need to be aware that a lot of road needs to be covered toward 114.78. Rather look for 107.19, the high of November 30, 2022, as the next profit target on the upside.
On the downside, the recent resistance at 105.88 should be seen as first support. Still, that barrier has just been broken to the upside, so it isn’t likely to be strong. Instead, look for 105.12 to do the trick and keep the DXY above 105.00.
US Dollar FAQs
What is the US Dollar?
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar?
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar?
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar?
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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