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- USD/RUB: Ruble depreciation to continue at a steady pace – Commerzbank
USD/RUB: Ruble depreciation to continue at a steady pace – Commerzbank
The Russian Ruble is likely to depreciate medium-term due to the declining current account surplus, in the view of economists at Commerzbank.
Current account fundamentals negative
We now forecast USD/RUB at 120.00 by end-2024.
Residents looking to dollarise their assets probably have structural motivations, not interest rate arbitrage motivation.
We expect Ruble depreciation to continue at a steady pace.
Official data acknowledge that the current account surplus has narrowed by 73% YoY year-to-date. This is the main negative fundamental driver of the exchange rate.
Source: Commerzbank Research
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