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- Australia GDP to reflect subdued growth conditions in economy – TD Securities
Australia GDP to reflect subdued growth conditions in economy – TD Securities
Analysts at TD Securities expect the data from Australia to show a 0.2% (QoQ) growth in real Gross Domestic Product in the second quarter.
We don't foresee a huge market reaction
"We expect Q2 GDP growth to come in at +0.2% q/q, +1.6% y/y, matching the RBA's Aug SoMP forecast but below consensus (mkt: 0.4%, 1.9%), reflecting subdued growth conditions in the economy. Real retail spending will pose a drag on consumption, likely subtracting 0.1%-pt from quarterly GDP growth while a sharp drop in net exports also poses downside risk to our forecast."
"On the other hand, the jump in housing market activity could translate to a stronger construction pipeline and help to offset the weaker growth over the quarter. As the Q2 GDP growth is released after the RBA Sep meeting, we don't foresee a huge market reaction but a weaker print will strengthen our conviction that the RBA is likely to be on hold for the rest of the year."
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