XAU/USD is down over 7% since its 2023 peak in May. Economists at UBS analyze Gold’s portfolio role as the backdrop shifts.
The changing backdrop has pushed both nominal and real US yields higher, adding to Dollar strength and undermining Gold’s near-term appeal. But, we don’t think short-term headwinds erode the portfolio case for Gold.
With US recession risks now fading and Dollar strength back, we have cut our year-end Gold forecast slightly to $1,950 and downgraded the precious metal to neutral within our global strategy.
We still recommend investors build Gold into their portfolios and broadly diversify USD holdings.
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