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- USD/CNH: Selling bias alleviated above 7.2000 – UOB
USD/CNH: Selling bias alleviated above 7.2000 – UOB
UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang argue that USD/CNH could see its downside momentum mitigated once it breaks above the 7.2000 level.
Key Quotes
24-hour view: We expected USD to rebound further last Friday, but we held the view that “it is unlikely to threaten 7.2000.” Instead of rebounding further, USD traded in a range of 7.1448/7.1780 before closing at 7.1490. The underlying tone has softened, and today, USD is likely to edge lower. However, any decline is unlikely to threaten last week’s low of 7.1170 (there is another support at 7.1300). On the upside, if USD breaks above 7.1700 (minor resistance is at 7.1600), it would mean that the current mild downward pressure has eased.
Next 1-3 weeks: Last Wednesday (26 Jul, spot at 7.1465), we highlighted that “downward momentum has increased, and there is room for USD to weaken further.” We added, “it is worth noting that there are a couple of strong support levels at 7.1240 and 7.1000.” After USD dropped to 7.1170 and rebounded, we highlighted last Friday (28 Jul, spot at 7.1700) that “If USD breaks above 7.2000 it would suggest that 7.1000 is not coming into view this time around.” We continue to hold the same view.
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