Market news
26.07.2023, 09:18

Pound Sterling adds more gains as BoE prepares for 14th consecutive rate hike

  • Pound Sterling extends recovery as the market mood turns cheerful.
  • More interest rates by the Bank of England will elevate pressure on United Kingdom’s economic growth.
  • UK first-time home buyers postpone demand as the housing sector faces headwinds from higher borrowing rates.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) printed a fresh four-day high on Wednesday as market participants shrug off risk associated with weak economic prospects. The GBP/USD pair recovers sharply as strength in Pound Sterling is uncovered ahead of the interest rate decision by the Bank of England (BoE), which will be announced on August 3.

No doubt, higher interest rates by the United Kingdom’s central bank have already dampened economic growth. The BoE cannot avoid raising rates further as inflation is almost four times the required rate of 2%. An interest rate hike at the August policy meeting would be the 14th straight raise to build pressure on stubborn inflation. The UK central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25%.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Pound Sterling jumps amid cheerful market mood

  • Pound Sterling finds resistance near the round-level resistance of 1.2900 after a sharp recovery as investors turn cautious ahead of key interest rate policy.
  • Market sentiment for Pound Sterling turns upbeat as investors ignore the United Kingdom’s weak economic prospects.
  • UK households are facing pressure from stubborn inflation and higher interest rates by the Bank of England as demand for big-ticket items hit hard.
  • The housing sector faces the headwinds of higher borrowing costs as first-time buyers postpone home purchases.
  • Britain’s economic recovery is under stress as a one-time decline in inflation is insufficient to increase confidence among individuals.
  • More interest-rate hikes from the BoE are in the pipeline as the journey toward achieving price stability is still out of sight.
  • Meanwhile, the BoE is preparing for its 14th consecutive interest-rate hike, which will be announced on August 3.
  • Investors hope that interest rates by the UK central bank will peak around 5.75%, according to a Reuters poll.
  • BoE policymakers need to do a lot more so that UK PM Rishi Sunak can meet his promise of halving inflation to 5% by year-end.
  • The Confederation of British Industry reported on Monday that British factory orders declined in July at the weakest rate this year, a positive sign, while expectations for increases in selling prices cooled further, according to Reuters.
  • Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has extended its correction below 101.20 as investors are clear that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates to 5.25-5.50%.
  • Investors are uncertain whether the Fed will consider a further interest rate hike in September or will skip the tightening regime as it did at June’s meeting.
  • The context of easing inflation in the United States while keeping the Unemployment Rate at record lows has put the Fed in a more comfortable situation.
  • Also, resilience in the US economy due to tight labor market conditions and decent consumer spending eased fears of recession.

Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling shifts auction place above 1.2900

Pound Sterling discovers buying interest after an intense sell-off to near the round-level cushion of 1.2800. The Cable finds support after successfully testing the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.2866. The asset prints a four-day high marginally above 1.2900 and is expected to continue its upside momentum. The Cable trades above short-to-long-term EMAs, indicating firm upside bias.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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