Canada Unemployment Rate Preview: Canadian Dollar traders to scrutinize jobs report

• Unemployment Rate in Canada expected to rise a tad to 5.1%, with job growth losing momentum in May.
• Canadian Dollar bulls will need an upbeat jobs report to extend the uptrend versus the US Dollar.
• Bank of Canada unexpectedly raised its policy rate in June but a weak jobs report could attract dovish bets.

The Canadian Labor Force Survey report, released by Statistics Canada, is scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT, on June 9. Markets expect the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 5.1% in May from 5% in April. Net Change in Employment, which rose by 41,400 in April, is forecast to increase by 23,200.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) unexpectedly announced earlier in the week that it raised its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75% after having left it unchanged at 4.5% in March and April. Upcoming labor market data could influence the Canadian Dollar’s (CAD) performance against its rivals. A stronger-than-expected growth in payrolls and wage inflation, as measured by the Average Hourly Earnings, could help the CAD gather strength against its rivals by suggesting that the BoC could continue to tighten its policy. On the other hand, the currency is likely to have a hard time finding demand if the jobs report reveals loosening conditions in the labor market.

How can the unemployment report shape the Bank of Canada policy?

The BoC noted that increasing concerns over the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation getting stuck materially above the 2% target was the primary reason behind the decision to hike the policy rate. The BoC reiterated that labor market conditions remained tight in Canada and further explained:

“Higher immigration and participation rates are expanding the supply of workers but new workers have been quickly hired, reflecting continued strong demand for labor.” 

Unless there is a noticeable cooldown in the jobs market, the BoC should continue to stay focused on taming inflation, which could translate into one more rate increase in July. In a recently published note to investors, Citigroup economists said that they are now anticipating the BoC to hike the key rate to 5% at the next policy meeting. In April, annual wage inflation stood at 5.2%. A reading close to that figure coupled with a healthy increase in payrolls, at or above market expectations, should allow the BoC to consider an even tighter policy.

On the other hand, a significant decline in annual wage growth and a disappointing Net Change in Employment, close to 0, could cause markets to reconsider the BoC’s policy outlook, at least until the May CPI inflation data.

When is May’s Canada Unemployment Rate released and how could it affect USD/CAD?

The Canadian Unemployment Rate for May will be released with the publication of the Labor Force Survey on Friday, June 9 at 12.30 GMT. The market expects moderate growth in payrolls in May and sees the Unemployment Rate ticking higher to 5.1% from 5%. Ahead of next week’s CPI data from the US and the Federal Reserve’s policy announcements, investors are unlikely to take large US Dollar (USD) positions. Hence, Canada's jobs report could influence USD/CAD’s action ahead of the weekend. 

As explained above, the CAD’s reaction to employment data should be straightforward due to the potential influence on the BoC’s rate outlook. A stronger-than-forecast increase in Employment Change alongside sticky wage inflation could provide a boost to CAD and cause USD/CAD to stretch lower and vice versa.

The daily chart points to a build-up of bearish momentum in USD/CAD with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator dropping below 40 following the BoC’s rate hike on Thursday. On the downside, 1.3300 (psychological level) aligns as the first support ahead of 1.3200, where the Fibonacci 50% retracement of the August-November uptrend is located.

In case USD/CAD gathers bullish momentum after the employment data, it is likely to face first resistance at 1.3400 (psychological level, static level) before 1.3450 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement). A daily close above the latter could open the door for an extended rebound toward 1.3500 (100-, 200-day Simple Moving Average).

About the Employment Change

The Employment Change released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the Canadian Dollar, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

About the Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics Canada is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian labor market. As a result, a rise normally leads to a weakening of the Canadian Dollar. Otherwise, a decrease of the figure is usually seen as positive (or bullish) for the CAD.