- Analytics
- News and Tools
- Market News
- EUR/USD: Projections of 1.14 by end-2023 and 1.08 by end-2024 must be read with caution – Commerzbank
EUR/USD: Projections of 1.14 by end-2023 and 1.08 by end-2024 must be read with caution – Commerzbank
Economists at Commerzbank analyze the EUR outlook ahead of the decisions of the major central banks next week.
How long the EUR-positive effects will dominate and at which points the EUR-negative arguments will become more important?
We expect the Fed to cut interest rates quite soon (the first ones expect this for around the end of the year), but not so from the ECB. Medium-term the ECB’s monetary policy should therefore be more attractive from the FX market’s point of view.
At the same time, we expect that the ECB’s monetary policy course will be such that (a) a fall in core inflation to levels close to the 2% target cannot be expected longer term and that (b) inflation risks in the Eurozone will not principally disappear, which justifies an inflation and inflation risk premium which could put sustainable pressure on the Euro.
We admit openly: our current projections, which assume that the EUR-positive factors will dominate until the end of the year, is more the result of gut instinct than rational calculation. Please read our EUR projections (1.14 at the end of 2023, 1.08 at the end of 2024) with some caution in this respect!
© 2000-2024. All rights reserved.
This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.
Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.
Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.
Bank transfers
