NZD/USD Price Analysis: Grinds higher past 0.6030-35 support after NZ trade data, US NFP eyed

• NZD/USD remains sidelined after refreshing weekly top on crossing the key hurdles, now support.
• Convergence of 100-HMA, one-week-old descending trend line restricts immediate downside.
• NZ Q1 Terms of Trade Index drops, US NFP awaited amid softer US Dollar, easing Fed bets.

NZD/USD buyers take a breather at the weekly top surrounding 0.6070 as downbeat New Zealand (NZ) data prods upside momentum during early Friday in Asia. Also challenging the Kiwi pair buyers is the cautious mood ahead of the key US employment releases.

That said, the NZ Terms of Trade Index for the first quarter (Q1) of 2023 marches -1.5% market expectations versus 1.8% previous readings. Additionally, forecasts surrounding the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to ease to 190K from 253K prior while the Unemployment Rate is also expected to increase to 3.5% from 3.4%.

Also read: NZD/USD surges above 0.6050 amid US Dollar weakness

Technically, NZD/USD remains firmer after crossing a convergence of the 100-Hour Moving Average (HMA) and the one-week-old previous resistance line, around 0.6535-30 by the press time.

The upside momentum gains support from the bullish MACD signals but the RSI (14) line appears overbought and hence the Kiwi pair buyers may witness challenges in keeping the reins.

With this, the 200-HMA hurdle of around 0.6095, quickly followed by the 0.6100 round figure, can restrict the immediate upside of the NZD/USD pair.

Following that, 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the pair’s May 19-31 downturn, respectively near 0.6145 and 0.6185, as well as the 0.6200 threshold, could probe the NZD/USD bulls before giving them control.

On the flip side, a clear break of the 0.6035-30 support confluence becomes necessary for the NZD/USD bear’s return. Even so, the 0.6000 psychological magnet and the previous monthly low of around 0.5985 can check the pair sellers.

NZD/USD: Hourly chart

Trend: Limited upside expected