GBP/USD returns above 1.2400 as USD Index retreats ahead of US Employment/Fed’s Beige Book

• GBP/USD has climbed back above 1.2400 as the USD Index has resumed its downside journey.
• Speaker McCarthy urged Republican members to support a bipartisan deal to lift the $31.4 trillion U.S. debt ceiling.
• Signs of persistence in the UK’s inflation are solidifying the need for more interest rate hikes from the BoE.

The GBP/USD pair has rebounded above the round-level resistance of 1.2400 after a steep correction in the early Tokyo session. The Cable has climbed back above 1.2400 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has retreated from 104.20.

S&P500 futures are showing minor losses in early Asia after a choppy Tuesday, portraying a caution in the overall market mood. US equities remained flat on Tuesday despite opening after an extended weekend.

Fears of a default by the United States economy have not waned entirely as the US debt-ceiling raise deal is yet to pass in Congress. Late Tuesday, House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy urged Republican members to support a bipartisan deal to lift the $31.4 trillion U.S. debt ceiling, calling it the most conservative deal we ever had.

The USD Index is expected to remain sideways after retreating from 104.20 as investors are shifting their focus toward the United States Employment data. But before that, US JOLTS Job Openings data (April) will be keenly watched. According to the estimates, total job openings have dropped to 9.375M vs. the former release of 9.59M.

Apart from that, Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book will be in focus which will provide economy-wise inflation and growth numbers.

On the Pound Sterling front, signs of persistence in the United Kingdom’s inflation are solidifying the need for more interest rate hikes from the Bank of England. Official food inflation softened marginally to 19.1% from the prior figure of 19.2% led by lower energy and commodity cost but is insufficient to force BoE Governor Andrew Bailey to remain neutral ahead.

Economists at Nomura cited “Following the latest inflation print, we have changed our call and now see the BoE raising rates by 25 bps at each of the next three meetings.” They further added “We thus forecast peak rates at 5.25% for the BoE.