Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls prod $1,951 hurdle on mixed start of US NFP week – Confluence Detector

• Gold Price licks its wounds at two-month low amid US Dollar pullback.
• Concerns about US debt ceiling allow XAU/USD to bounce amid holidays in multiple markets.
• Key technical hurdle, fundamental catalysts stand tall to challenge the Gold buyers.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) picks up bids to consolidate the monthly losses, the first in three, amid mixed concerns surrounding the US debt limit extension. Adding strength to the corrective bounce could be the holidays in the major markets including the US, as well as anxiety ahead of this week’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).

That said, a deal to avoid the US debt payment default lacks unanimous support from some among the Republicans and Democrats, which in turn hints at a political drama over the passage of the key agreement to avoid the looming default on June 05. The same prods the Gold Price buyers.

Apart from that, hawkish hopes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), backed by upbeat US data and hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers, as well as from Monetary Fund Managing (IMF) Director Kristalina Georgieva, also challenge the Gold price upside.

Hence, XAU/USD traders may witness further consolidation of the latest losses but the bullish trend hinges on the US data, the debt ceiling deal’s passage and the Gold buyer’s ability to conquer the $1,951 resistance. 

Also read: Gold Price Forecast: No relief for XAU/USD buyers despite the US debt deal

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

Our Technical Confluence Indicator shows that the Gold price rebound approaches the short-term key upside hurdle surrounding $1,951, comprising Fibonacci 38.2% on one day and the previous monthly low.

In a case where the XAU/USD remains firmer past $1,951, a convergence of the 5-DMA, previous daily low and Pivot Point one-day R1, close to $1,958, can prod the Gold buyers before giving them control.

It should be noted that 200-HMA, Fibonacci 61.8% on one-week and Pivot Point one-day R2 together constitute $1,968 as the last defense of the Gold sellers.

On the flip side, a joint of the Fibonacci 61.8% on one-day and Pivot Point one-month S1 offers short-term key support near $1,945 ahead of highlighting the previous daily low and Pivot Point one-day S1, close to $1,938.

Following that, the Pivot Point one-week S1 may check the Gold sellers around $1,928 ahead of directing them to the $1,900 round figure.

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About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size