USD/MXN soars above 18.0000 as Fed hints more hikes; rate cut expectations pushed back

• Risk-off impulse triggered outflows from the emerging market Mexican Peso, boosting the US Dollar.
• The NY Fed Manufacturing Index climbed as business conditions improved.
• USD/MXN Price Analysis: Downward biased, but it could aim towards 18.7000 if it clears 18.2000.

The USD/MXN advances as the Mexican Peso (MXN) weakens, courtesy of hawkish commentary by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Increasing woes that the Fed would keep tightening monetary conditions, alongside investors pushing back the first rate cut to November 2023, augmented US Dollar demand. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN is trading at 18.0755 after hitting a low of 17.9142.

Investors favor US Dollar with a potential Fed rate hike and Banxico’s easing

Investors’ sentiment deteriorated as the US Dollar (USD) advanced. Traders seeking safety bought the US Dollar, as shown by its US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the American Dollar value against a basket of six currencies, extends its gains, up 0.56%, at 102.140.

Expectations for the upcoming May meeting of the US Federal Reserve, the CME FedWatch Tool, foresees an 88.7% chance for a 25 bps rate hike to the 5.00% - 5.25% range.

Earlier, a report by the New York Fed revealed that manufacturing activity in the region unexpectedly expanded in April due to a jump in new orders and shipments. The Empire State Manufacturing Index advanced 10.8, above estimates for a -18 plunge. The poll highlighted that factories were more optimistic about general business conditions.

On the Mexican front, a light economic calendar keeps traders leaning on the latest monetary policy decision by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), which raised rates by “only” 25 bps to 11.25% after a series of 50 and 75 bps rate hikes to the TIIE. Banxico’s moderated the pace of interest-rate increases as the institution is near to end of its tightening cycle.

The latest inflation data in Mexico witnessed a deceleration from 7.62% in February to 6.85% in March. However, the core reading remained above 8%, at 8.09%, from the prior’s month 8.29%, proving to be stickier than foreseen.

What to watch?

The Mexican economic docket is empty. On the other hand, the US calendar would feature housing data alongside additional Fed speakers crossing newswires.

USD/MXN Technical Analysis

From a technical analysis perspective, the USD/MXN is still downward biased. However, the recent leg-up could put up a test to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 18.1929, which, once cleared, could exacerbate a rally, initially to the 50-day EMA at 18.4035. A breach of the latter and the USD/MXN pair will continue higher towards the 100-day EMA at 18.7272. On the contrary, a fall below 18.0000 can open the door for a re-test of the YTD low at 17.8968.