USD/CAD clings to 1.3500 after the biggest run-up in six weeks, focus on China, Fedspeak

• USD/CAD seesaws around the highest levels in two weeks after a heavy upside move.
• Oil prices struggle to defend the corrective bounce off the yearly low.
• Hawkish Fedspeak, fears emanating from China keep buyers hopeful.
• Canada’s Q3 GDP, US CB Consumer Confidence will be important for fresh impulse.

USD/CAD bulls take a breather around a fortnight top, making rounds to 1.3500 during Tuesday’s Asian session, after posting the biggest daily jump in 1.5 months the previous day.

The Loonie pair’s rally on Monday could be linked to the US Dollar’s broad run-up on hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, as well as Covid woes from China. It should be noted that with the improvement in prices of WTI crude oil, Canada’s key exports failed to weigh on the USD/CAD prices.

“Hundreds of demonstrators and police clashed in Shanghai on Sunday night as protests over the restrictions flared for the third day and spread to several cities, with police on Monday stopping and searching people at the sites of weekend protests in Shanghai and Beijing,” reported Reuters.  The news joins the all-time high of daily virus infections from the dragon nation to weigh on the sentiment.

Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester marked the need to see several more good inflation reports and more signs of moderation to back the pause in rate hikes. On the same line, St. Louis Fed President James "Jim" Bullard stated that the situation calls for much higher interest rates than what we've been used to. Further, New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said that he believes the Fed will need to raise rates to a level sufficiently restrictive to push down on inflation and keep them there for all of next year. Recently, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard advocated for tighter monetary policy while citing risk-management reasons.

Amid these plays, Wall Street closed in the red and the US Treasury yields improved after an initial slump. Further, WTI crude oil refreshed the yearly low before closing on the positive side, retreating to $76.60 as of late.

Looking forward, Canada’s third quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, expected to improve from 3.3% to 3.5%, will be important for the USD/CAD pair traders to watch for clear directions. Also crucial will be the monthly US Confederation Board’s (CB) Consumer Confidence for November and the aforementioned risk catalysts. Above all, Friday’s employment numbers from the US and Canada should be awaited before making any major trade decision.

Technical analysis

A daily closing beyond the convergence of the 21 and 50 Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), around 1.3440 by the press time, favors USD/CAD buyers to aim for the six-week-old resistance line, around 1.3600 at the latest.