AUD/USD Price Analysis: Stuck in a range around mid-0.6600s as traders await FOMC minutes

• AUD/USD lacks any firm intraday directional bias on Wednesday and oscillates in a range.
• The prevalent USD selling bias offers some support, though a softer risk tone caps gains.
• The mixed US data fails to provide any impetus as the focus remains on FOMC minutes.

The AUD/USD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses through the early North American session on Wednesday. The pair is currently placed around mid-0.6600s, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders keenly await the release of the November FOMC meeting minutes.

In the meantime, the prevalent US Dollar selling bias continues to offer support to the AUD/USD pair. Investors seem convinced that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its policy-tightening cycle and have been pricing in a greater chance of a relatively smaller 50 bps rate hike in December. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor weighing on the Greenback.

The USD maintains its offered tone and fails to gain any respite from mixed US economic releases. The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims in the US rose to the highest since August and largely offset the upbeat US Durable Goods Orders data. That said, the cautious market mood helps limit losses for the safe-haven buck and keeps a lid on the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair has managed to hold comfortably above the 0.6600 round figure. The said handle should protect the immediate downside and act as a pivotal point for intraday traders. A convincing break below will expose a strong resistance breakpoint, around the 0.6560-0.6550 area, which coincides with the 200-period Exponential Moving Average on the 4-hour chart.

Some follow-through selling will negate any near-term positive outlook and shift the bias in favour of bearish traders. The AUD/USD pair might then turn vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the 0.6500 psychological mark. The downward trajectory could get extended towards the 0.6435 intermediate support before spot prices eventually drop to sub-0.6400 levels.

On the flip side, immediate resistance is pegged ahead of the 0.6700 mark, which if conquered should pave the way for additional gains. The AUD/USD pair might then climb to the 0.6740-0.6745 hurdle and make a fresh attempt to conquer the 0.6800 mark. The momentum could get extended towards a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average, currently around the 0.6845 region. The pair has also formed a harami Japanese candelstick pattern on the daily chart at the recent November 21-22 lows and if Wednesday's price provides bullish confirmation in the form of a green candlestick the short-term trend may flip bullish. 

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

Key levels to watch