JP Morgan analysts hold onto their medium-term bullish bias for the US Dollar in the latest report.
The durability of a broad USD sell-off is fragile with macro uncertainty near 5-decade highs and the dollar yielding more than half of global FX.
Growth momentum outside the US has admittedly neutralized, but not out of the woods yet.
USD performance around the last four Fed pauses was not consistent and growth-dependent; more consistent was the decline in US rates regardless of the growth outcome.
USD valuations are rich but odds of a US recession have not been so high before the Fed is done hiking since the 1970s," JPM notes.
The mix of growth/ inflation surprises matters for composition of USD moves. Such high odds of a US recession keeps us more cautious on high beta FX but USD/JPY is likely most affected if US rates have indeed peaked.
Also read: USDJPY Price Analysis: Bulls tread with caution as bearish coil dominates
© 2000-2024. All rights reserved.
This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.
Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.
Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.