New Zealand is set to report its employment figures for the third quarter on Tuesday, November 1 at 21:45 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are forecasts from economists and researchers at four major banks regarding the upcoming labour market data.
The unemployment rate is expected to fall a tick to 3.2%, driven by an expected 0.5% quarter-on-quarter gain in employment. Private wages including overtime are expected at 1.2% QoQ vs. 1.3% in Q2.
“We expect a solid 0.6% rise in employment for the quarter and a small dip in the unemployment rate back to its record low of 3.2%. We also expect a 1% rise in the Labour Cost Index, lifting the annual growth rate to a 14-year high of 3.6%.”
“We’ve pencilled in a 0.5% QoQ (0.3% YoY) increase in employment. That translates into unemployment easing 0.2ppts to 3.1%, assuming the participation rate lifts 0.1ppts to 70.9%. Data may not shift the dial for the November MPS (where a 75 bps hike is widely expected). But a stronger-than-expected set of data could firm up expectations for another 75 bps hike in February.”
“We think Wednesday’s Q3 labour market reports will show the unemployment rate pressing down to a record low 3.1%, lower than the 3.3% the RBNZ predicted in its August MPS. But then the RBNZ also expected a quarterly 1.2% lift in the private-sector LCI, which is north of the 1.0% we expect.”
“NZ Q3 Labor Force and Wages: Citi employment change forecast; 0.8%, Previous; 0.0%; Citi unemployment rate forecast; 3.3%, Previous; 3.3%; Citi private sector wages forecast; 1.6%, Previous; 1.3%. Despite the return of jobs, we do not expect the unemployment rate to fall from 3.3%. Even so, with a tight labor market, we expect another strong increase in private-sector wage costs.”
© 2000-2024. All rights reserved.
This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.
Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.
Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.