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- BOE’s Pill: All inflation forecasts are dependent on very volatile gas prices
BOE’s Pill: All inflation forecasts are dependent on very volatile gas prices
Bank of England (BOE) Chief Economist Huw Pill is testifying on the bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR) before Parliament's Treasury Committee on Wednesday.
Key comments
Goldman Sachs UK inflation forecasts are mechanical implication of wholesale gas markets.
Goldman Sachs forecasts illustrate how much market prices have changed since BOE prepared Aug inflation forecast.
Some of rise in gas prices has reversed since Goldman inflation forecast.
All inflation forecasts are dependent on very volatile gas prices.
Inflation forecast also depends on machinery by which wholesale gas prices translate into retail prices.
Politicians are considering transmission of wholesale gas prices to consumer.
Seems clear to me we will see changes in this area.
Inflation impact of future fiscal stimulus depends on details.
Supporting household incomes will boost demand, leading to slightly stronger inflation.
I would expect headline inflation to decline in short term.
Implication for inflation at monetary policy relevant horizon is unclear, given lack of detail.
Very short-term impact on government measures on inflation may not be most important thing for BOE.
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