The US dollar was mostly weaker yesterday versus G10. Today, it is hard to see a big jump in FX vol on FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, in the view of economists at MUFG Bank.
“It feels like there’s certainly a consensus for at least another 125 bps of tightening this year. Fed President Bullard also spoke and cited frontloading and getting the fed funds to 3.75%-4.00%.”
“We can’t see Fed Chair Powell providing the grounds for a big move in rates. He is unlikely to commit to a size of move for the September FOMC and is more likely than not to imply implicitly that current market pricing seems reasonable.”
“We’d expect Powell to have a hawkish bias similar to other speakers this week which will help support the dollar without providing a catalyst for any notable gains from current levels.”
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