Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes a sustained move towards $1,792 – Confluence Detector

• Gold price cheers renewed USD selling on weaker Treasury yields and upbeat mood.
• Hawkish Fedspeak and strong US data jack up a 75 bps Sept Fed rate hike bets.   
• Path of least resistance appears up for XAU/USD, with eyes on BOE, US jobs.

Gold price is trading on the front foot, awaiting a sustained move towards the $1,790-$1,792 supply zone. Strong US corporate earnings and economic data combined with the Chinese tech gains have lifted the overall market mood, despite ongoing China’s military threats against Taiwan. The greenback takes a back seat alongside the Treasury yields amid the market optimism, underpinning the USD-priced yellow metal. The further upside in XAU/USD hinges on the Fed rate hike expectations, with the chance for a 75 bps lift-off in September having increased to 42% after the recent hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers. Next of relevance for gold traders remain the US employment data, which could hint at a probable recession. The BOE monetary policy decision will be also closely followed for fresh trading direction in the non-interest-bearing bullion.

Also read: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD looks north towards 1,790, focus on BOE, yields

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price is heading into the pivot point one-day R1 resistance at $1,773, where the previous day’s high meets.

The next upside barrier is aligned at the Bollinger Band four-hour Upper at $1,780, above which the pivot point one-day R2 at $1,783 will be tested.

Bulls will then aim to take out $1,786, the pivot point one-week R1, on its way to $1,792. At that level, the SMA50 one-day and pivot point one-day R3 coincide.

On the downside, strong support is seen at the confluence of the previous week’s high and Fibonacci 23.6% one-day at $1,768.

Sellers are likely to challenge a dense cluster of support levels around $1,764, which is the intersection of the SMA5 one-day, Fibonacci 61.8% one-month and the previous low four-hour.

The next relevant support awaits at the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day at $1,761. The line in the sand for XAU bulls is $1,755, the convergence of the previous day’s low, Fibonacci 23.6% one-week and pivot point one-day S1.

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About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.