“On the day prior to its monetary policy meeting today the inflation data published yesterday confirmed that the South African central bank (SARB) is facing a further rise in inflation rates,” explains Elisabeth Andreae, FX and EM Analyst at Commerzbank.
“Like the majority of analysts polled by Bloomberg we expect the SARB to take countermeasures today by hiking the key rate in a 50bp step to then 5.25%.”
“A third of analysts expects a larger step of 75 bp though and some market participants also seem to be expecting that. Enforced rate hikes promise a more rapid success on the inflation front and other central banks’ more active approach might be putting pressure on SARB. However, this approach increases the risk of stronger drops in growth.”
“The rand has been trading at significantly weaker levels against USD and EUR recently, which means that a lot already seems priced in as regards rate expectations. A rate step in line with consensus expectations might cause some disappointment amongst market participants, putting pressure on the rand.”
“A surprisingly large step or a surprisingly hawkish statement might support the rand at least temporarily, due to the growing risks possible gains are likely to be limited though.”
© 2000-2024. All rights reserved.
This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.
Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.
Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.