- Analytics
- News and Tools
- Market News
- US: Inverted yield curve at year-end – Morgan Stanley
US: Inverted yield curve at year-end – Morgan Stanley
Will US Treasury yields move higher? Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy for Morgan Stanley, forecasts an inverted yield curve at year-end with two-year Treasury yields reaching 3.25% and ten-year yields near 3%.
Outlook for government bonds depends on more than just central bank policy
“We now expect the Fed to deliver two more 50 basis point rate hikes this year, then downshift to a series of 25 basis point moves. At the end of the year, they see the Fed funds target range at 2.5% to 2.75%, and the Fed's balance sheet on its way to $6.5 trillion.”
“We expect front end yields to trace market-implied forward yields, largely consistent with two-year Treasury yields reaching 3.25% by the end of the year.”
“Demand from investors looking to hedge risks to a weaker outcome for global growth will likely show up in the longer end of the Treasury curve. We think the ten-year yield will end the year near 3%, which is a level we were at not that long ago.”
“We're forecasting an inverted yield curve at year-end. With inflation remaining high and growth slowing, discussions of stagflation or outright recession should continue to lead investor debate this year. And ultimately, that should limit the degree to which Treasury yields rise into year-end.”
© 2000-2024. All rights reserved.
This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.
Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.
Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.
Bank transfers
