The pound is trying to find some support around the 1.22 level after what has been a near-freefall from the upper half of the 1.20-1.30 range. Economists at ING note that the cable is at risk of falling towards 1.20 next week.
“The way ahead looks likely to remain very uneven for the pound considering that markets still have a good deal of monetary tightening to price out from the GBP swap curve (which continues to imply a policy rate at 2.00% by year-end).”
“Incidentally, with Brexit-related risks back to the fore as the UK appears close to unilaterally scrapping parts of the Northern Ireland agreement, the downside risks for GBP remain quite significant and a move to 1.2000 next week may be on the cards.”
“EUR/GBP may remain close to the 0.8500 mark (as the euro is facing weak momentum of its own), although we see greater potential for a return to 0.8600 rather than a drop to 0.8400 in the near term.”
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