- Analytics
- News and Tools
- Market News
- Three scenarios for the economy and markets – Citibank
Three scenarios for the economy and markets – Citibank
Citi analysts have devised three scenarios to forecast possible outcomes as the world faces an exceedingly complex set of challenges. Currently, Citi’s base case is resilient at a 40% probability, with each robust and recession at 25% probabilities.
Robust, resilient, recession
“The RESILIENT scenario expects Fed tightening policy will constrain growth in the US and world economy this year. This will be neutralized to some degree by growth generated from lean inventories and recovering production. In this scenario, strong corporate profits will shift to sectors with ‘durable demand’.”
“The ROBUST scenario assumes there is greater risk in Europe's markets than in the US, and that the conflict in Ukraine and Russian economic sanctions do not expand further. A compromise between Ukraine, Russia, and NATO would bring commodity prices down and might diminish the Fed's urgency to tighten policy.”
“In the RECESSION scenario, the Fed would tighten too fast for growth in supply to meet decelerating demand, resulting in recession in 2023 with a sharp drop in US share prices. The forecasted path for US Treasury 2-year notes – coupled with expectations of reduced Fed lending – suggests a growing recession risk in 2023.”
© 2000-2024. All rights reserved.
This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.
Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.
Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.
Bank transfers
