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- USD/JPY: BoJ to welcome a moderate pace of yen depreciation – Commerzbank
USD/JPY: BoJ to welcome a moderate pace of yen depreciation – Commerzbank
The Ukraine war has led to significant USD strength and thus also to a surge in USD/JPY. Amid a global inflationary supply shock, economists at Commerzbank expect the Japanese yen to move downward.
Real interest rate in Japan to shift to the disadvantage of JPY
“In the event of a global energy price shock, the real interest rate in Japan is likely to shift significantly to the disadvantage of the yen – compared with other currency areas.”
“We assume that the yen will not recover and will tend to moderate weakness if the global inflation shock continues to unfold in H2/2022.”
“The BoJ is unlikely to be satisfied with the recent pace of yen depreciation. However, it is more likely to welcome a moderate pace of depreciation.”
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